I have lived through several technology bubbles in which companies reached extraordinary valuations before proving they could justify those expectations. The revolution was real, but that did not prevent many investments from being irrational. Today, I see something similar happening with artificial intelligence companies. Their valuations assume exceptional growth and an ability to maintain their position for years. Yet the history of computing shows that technological advantages rarely remain intact. Computers, the internet and smartphones all began as technologies offering limited possibilities to those who could access them. Over time, their capabilities increased and costs fell, turning them into tools accessible to millions of people.

Artificial intelligence may follow the same path. Models will improve, algorithms will become more efficient, and running advanced systems will become increasingly affordable. Open source and the ability of AI systems themselves to develop software could accelerate this process. If a technology becomes accessible to everyone, it is difficult to justify the assumption that a handful of companies will maintain indefinitely the margins and advantages the market currently attributes to them. This does not mean that artificial intelligence is a bluff or that these companies have no value. It means that the value of a technology and the price of the companies developing it are two different things. Perhaps in a few years we will discover that the market confused a technological revolution with the promise of extraordinary profits for its early pioneers. The history of computing teaches us to distrust those who confuse being pioneers with permanently owning the future.